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Used at top MBA programs including
Stanford Graduate School of Business
University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University
Summary
  • The frenzied activity in electric vehicles in 2020 was part investment, part frothy speculation. Underneath the froth is real progress towards breaking down the 3 critical barriers to EV adoption – vehicle range, price, and charging infrastructure.
  • One of the most dramatic developments lately has been the spate of government bans on gasoline-only and internal-combustion vehicles. In addition to California, at least 17+ countries have announced phase-outs. Even China, the world’s largest car market, and Japan, home to hybrid powerhouse Toyota, are planning to phase out gasoline-only vehicles by 2035.
  • While nearly all the hard challenges with EVs revolve around the battery, the good news is that battery technology is changing more rapidly than ever. Tesla, GM and Toyota are working on bringing the battery cost structure down, and battery chemistry is a major area of R&D going on right now.
  • The barriers to EV adoption are coming down: Vehicle ranges are increasing and a 300+ mile range is becoming table stakes. Electric-vehicle prices will drop over the next 4 years and near parity with conventional vehicles ($25K-40K) – even earlier with subsidies. Finally, charging infrastructure is growing at 35-45% annually and likely to be able to meet future needs.
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